Geopolitics · Energy · May 2026

The Strait of Hormuz

A 33-km-wide gap of water carries a fifth of the world's oil. Since February 2026 it has been a war zone — and nearly closed.

Effectively closed · traffic ~5% of normal
Where it is

A pinch point between Iran and Oman

The strait is the only sea route in and out of the Persian Gulf. At its narrowest the shipping lanes squeeze to about 3 km in each direction — close enough to be threatened from shore.

~33 km wide IRAN north shore OMAN · UAE south shore PERSIAN GULF GULF OF OMAN STRAIT OF HORMUZ
Iran Oman / UAE Open water Tanker shipping lane
Why the world cares

One narrow lane, a fifth of global oil

There is no quick land alternative for most of this energy. When the strait chokes, the whole world feels the price.

~20%
of global petroleum trade passes through it
~20%
of the world's liquefied natural gas (LNG)
~3,000
vessels used the strait each month before the crisis
How we got here

The 2026 crisis, in five moments

28 Feb 2026

The war begins

The US and Israel launch airstrikes on Iran, killing supreme leader Ali Khamenei. Iran retaliates with missiles and drones against Israel, US bases and Gulf states.

2–4 Mar 2026

Iran closes the strait

The Revolutionary Guard declares the strait shut to "unfriendly nations," lays sea mines, boards merchant ships and claims "complete control."

Mid-March 2026

Oil shock

Brent crude rockets past $100, then toward record highs as roughly 95% of normal traffic vanishes from the strait.

13 Apr 2026

US blockades Iran

Washington launches a naval blockade of Iranian ports and strikes Iranian naval assets, deepening the standoff. China and Russia block UN action.

May 2026 — now

Fragile ceasefire, closed strait

A conditional ceasefire holds while talks continue, but almost no shipping is moving. Analysts assume flows only gradually resume from June.

The price tag

The largest oil-market shock on record

The World Bank called the disruption the biggest oil shock in history. Brent jumped roughly 65% by the end of March — its sharpest monthly rise ever — and stayed violently volatile.

$150 $90 $60 $144 peak Feb Mar 1 Mar 12 late Mar Apr May

Illustrative Brent crude path — directional, not exact daily prices.

The takeaway

Why a strait can move the whole economy

It's a true chokepoint

Geography offers no easy detour. A handful of pipelines bypass it, but they can't carry anywhere near the volume the strait moves.

Energy = everything

Oil and gas feed transport, electricity, fertilizer and plastics. A supply scare ripples into food, freight and inflation worldwide.

Asia is most exposed

Most Gulf oil heads east. China, India, Japan and South Korea rely heavily on cargo that must thread this single passage.

Fear moves faster than barrels

Traders price in risk instantly. Even the threat of closure adds a "war premium" to prices long before any real shortage hits.